Wednesday, November 17, 2010

For anyone paying attention, you know that finally, after months and months of posturing, bullying, sucking-up, foot-dragging, lying, arrogance, deceit, and lord knows what sort of illegal behaviors, we finally see conditions established to form the next government.

But enough of election day in the U.S. The same thing happened here in Iraq at about the same time. Eight months and four days after the national elections, the Iraqi Council of Representatives finally gathered to finish the session they opened, and left open, way back in June.

This probably requires some explanation, though the truth here won't necessarily clarify a great deal. In accordance with the Iraq constitution, the newly elected council of representatives (COR) must elect a President within, I think, a week of the first session. That would have been a simple enough deal except for this: every bloc/list/party that won seats in the government wants prestigious positions in the government and there is no systematic means of doing this. That means you can't name the President unless you know who the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the COR will be, and each of the three main ethnic and sectarian insists on at least one of these positions. Anyone not getting the position they want will insist on certain ministerial powers for their bloc/list/party to offset the diminished powers of their own office. Since all elected officials know this routine, they met for about an hour at the initial session, then went home without ever closing it. They have all been collecting paychecks (HUGE paychecks) for eight months and not doing a damn thing to earn it.

The Prime Minister is the plum position and the most powerful, so each bloc/list/party maneuvers to get it. It's a no-holds-barred ugly process and it puts the whole system in flux as power players seek alliances along any imaginable lines. Guys who hate each other's guts, sometimes multiple parties of guys who hate each other's guts, will merge then diverge, coalesce then fragment, form then deform, always trying to gain an edge that others won't be able to overcome.

There is no end to outsiders willing to "help." The U.S., Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and anyone else candidates can woo or influence to make themselves appear to have the upper hand. The two primary contenders spent huge amounts of time visiting neighboring states in hopes of gaining some sort of "most favored candidate" status. Each of these countries has their own agenda to work, and there was a lot of behind-the-scenes pressure from every direction to form the government in ways favorable to those countries. The U.S. wants an inclusive and representative government to preclude too much Shia influence, which plays into the hands of Shia controlled Iran. We also want to limit governance roles for Muqtada Sadr, a rather thuggish dude with a large following in Iraq that collectively have shown no real talent for anything but mayhem. Iran, of course, has their own vision of how things should look, and Mr. Sadr figures prominently in that view.

Anyway, this soup has been simmering for a long time whilst being stirred by these many spoons. Somehow, all of the players reached a point where they all thought they agreed upon some grand bargain. The COR reconvened, they named the President, speaker of the COR, and a couple of vice Presidents before things started unraveling. It seems the leading vote-getter from the elections, Mr. Allawi, could not overcome the alliances forged by his nemesis Mr. Maliki, but did manage to force some sort of power-sharing deal that resulted in a brand-new position in the government. Unfortunately, the COR didn't bother to name him to this position on day one and things turned ugly.

I think they may have worked things back out, but we won't know for a few more days because after the first session they took a break for Eid al-Adha, the celebration of sacrifice held each year after the Hajj (pilgrimage to Mecca). Once they reconvene, Mr. Maliki will be formerly charged to form the government and has 30 days in which to do so. That means satisfying all of the deals made to enable his claiming of Prime Minister, so I expect it will be an interesting time between now and Christmas.

If not before I leave, then upon my return from Christmas R&R there should be a fully-formed government. Insha'Allah.

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