Exit Strategy

I have to hurry up and post this before President Obama returns from vacation and makes his big Iraq speech. It will make me look like either a prophet or an idiot. Since the pay is the same regardless, I guess it doesn't really matter.

Many of you may have read or watched news stories surrounding the departure from Iraq of the 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team on the 19th of August. The event was typically billed as the departure of the last U.S. combat brigade from Iraq, which is not exactly true, and sometimes heralded as the end of the war for the U.S., which is not remotely true.

So, you may be asking yourself, what exactly does it mean? Glad you asked.

I'll start by rolling back the clock to January 2009, at which time the United States and Iraq signed an agreement establishing how the U.S. would remove troop presence from Iraq cities by July 2009 and eventually the entire country not later than December 2011. This is referred to as the Security Agreement, fondly known around here as the SA, and it has absolutely nothing to do with what happened on 19 Aug.

What happened on 19 August was the result of a political mandate of the current administration that said, enroute to the removal of all U.S. forces by the end of 2011, we will end the U.S. combat mission and reduce troop levels to not more than 50,000 by 1 September 2010. On that date, Operation Iraqi Freedom ends and Operation New Dawn begins. Those operational units remaining in Iraq as part of the 50,000 are re-designated from Combat Brigade Teams to Advise and Assist Brigades with a mission change commensurate with the name change.

Beginning on the 1st of September, these units will no longer conduct partnered operations with Iraq Security Forces as they continue to battle a persistent level of violent extremist attacks. Some U.S. troops may accompany their Iraqi counterparts on these missions as advisors, but the door-kicking and trigger-pulling is wholly relegated to the Iraqi forces.

The primary function of the remaining brigades is to continue work on improving the individual and collective skills of Iraq security forces in order to enhance their capabilities and professionalism. The U.S. brigades are also part of the larger U.S. effort of working with the government of Iraq to continue enhancing civil capacity and economic opportunity across the country.

All of that said, these U.S. units are still fully manned and fully equipped combat units that will take whatever measures necessary to protect themselves. They will still be targeted by violent extremists and there will continue to be casualties right up to the point all are gone in December 2011.

So, in the end, you might still ask what exactly it means. Militarily, a case could easily be made that the war is won. Regime change happened, new government elected (we'll skip the part about how dorked-up that is), and Iraq security forces are large and in charge. Exit US military. It was a long and bitterly painful road, but the destination is reached.

From the larger perspective of U.S. involvement in diplomatic and inter-governmental activities leading to full Iraqi sovereignty and stability, history will judge. There are a ton of problems and none made easier by the nature of Middle East ways and means. If the will of the people prevails, all will be well. If it's business as usual for the Iraqi leadership, Lord help them all.