Day of Rage

I wrote a few weeks back about what the US was doing in Iraq, with the intent to follow that up with my thoughts on what Iraq was doing in Iraq. In the interim, democratic fervor broke out across the Middle East and led me down a different path for the last entry. Since that story line continues unabated, I reckon I'm going to have to sort of blend the two concepts to provide a better perspective for what is going on here.

To set the stage, I'll lay out the basics of the first issue, what Iraq is doing in Iraq. It was almost one year ago (March 7, 2010) that Iraqis went to the polls to elect their first truly sovereign government since the coalition invasion in March of 2003. Participation was robust, representing more than 60% of eligible voters and all ethno-sectarian groups, and legitimate, having endured microscopic scrutiny from scads of international monitors.

Unfortunately, it took nine more months to finally form the elected government, and even that is not wholly true, since the most powerful ministries (Defense, Interior, and National Defense) remain under the Prime Minister, who has not deemed any candidates worthy as of yet. On the heels of this stalemate comes a somewhat shocking decision by the Federal Supreme Court to place a number of "independent" government bodies under the control of the PM instead of the Council of Representatives (roughly equivalent to Congress). Two of these independent bodies are the Integrity Commission and the Independent High Electoral Council (overseers of elections). This action, together with retention of control of the security ministries, has many Iraqis concerned about "another Saddam."

Intrigue aside, the formation of the rest of the government generated a lot of activity in the diplomatic and economic realms. Iraqi officials were flying all over the region visiting fellow diplomats, who were equally bent on coming here to visit. The Arab League Summit, planned for Baghdad but long considered in jeopardy because of security concerns and lack of government formation, suddenly drew advocates from across the region. More oil and gas deals were cut, oil production started creeping up, and all indicators were that Iraq was opening up for business.

There is still too much violence -- the zombies work hard to sustain the body count and are always looking for easy targets, typically crowds of pilgrims or market shoppers. The Iraq security forces are leaning hard on these guys, forcing them to find paths of least resistance and further contributing to the belief that they are an oozing sore on the skin of humanity.

All of that has now been overtaken by events. The toppling of the Tunisia and Egyptian rulers quickly became a regional movement to displace suppressive autocratic regimes. Though Iraq has what the rest of them want, which is representative government, they still feel they have plenty to gripe about and they have busily been doing just that for two weeks.

Unlike the regime change sought elsewhere, the issues in Iraq are, so far, more local. Corrupt officials, lack of jobs, and meager basic services such as electricity, clean water, and garbage removal. Demonstrations of widely varied sizes crop up each day in different cities and provinces. Sometimes the protesters misbehave and sometimes the security forces do as well. Protesters throw rocks and set fire to government buildings, security forces shoot some of them. There is considerable tension. And growing cohesiveness among the disenchanted.

There is not much Internet access yet in Iraq, but social media combined with very robust cell phone ownership combined to gradually direct broad interest to this Friday, the 25th of Feb. It is dubbed the Day of Rage. I, largely due to proximity, am not a big fan of the adoption of such a mean-spirited
moniker, but there it is and here it will soon be.

It is impossible to guess how this will play out. The Iraqis are justifiably upset with the lack of attention their elected government opted to bestow upon them, but must be aware at some level that no miracles will happen overnight no matter who is in charge. These folks all need to engage in some meaningful dialogue, quickly followed by some equally meaningful actions that clearly display honest intent and a credible plan for improvement over time.

Should make for a very interesting day.

Super Bowl and Mideast Unrest

I thought my next installment to this endeavor would be to discuss what it is that Iraq is doing in Iraq these days. Fortunately, other topics have moved to the fore and I can continue to keep that one “on the shelf” for future use.

First recent topic of interest is the Super Bowl. I write this on Super Bowl Sunday and in anticipation of a somewhat memorable event unfolding over the next 15 hours. For those of you reading this that plan on having or attending a Super Bowl party, keep in mind that about the time you are setting out the chips and dips, those of us who choose to watch here will be struggling to emerge from the deepest stages of sleep. Start time in Baghdad is 0230, so the prevailing strategy is to get 3-4 hours of sleep pre-game, stagger over to the dining facility to watch the game, then try to get 3-4 more hours of sleep post-game.

The powers that be in U.S. Forces – Iraq have deemed that Monday morning be free of scheduled activities, a hopeful attempt to prevent thousands of folks from sleeping on their keyboards through most of the day. This enables the post-game slumber. To help achieve that slumber, the Omnipotent are temporarily lifting the alcohol prohibition imposed by General Order #1. Every service member gets two beers during the game.

This is a welcome development, done for just the second time since my arrival here last April. However, it unfairly excludes a large part of our work force, that being the contractors and government civilians entwined throughout the organization. I briefly considered foregoing my beers in silent protest. Briefly, as in less time than it took to write this sentence. Sucks to be them. My apologies to those folks for my lack of sensitivity, but my experience is that misery will find me and I need not practice for it.

That’s it for sports. Now for world news.

The topic du jour, for jour after jour here over the last week, is the civil unrest in the Middle East exemplified by Tunisia and Egypt. I’m guessing it is at least mildly interesting for everyone back in the land of plenty; it is at least mildly disconcerting for most of us here in the land of wretched essential services. The Iraqis, inscrutable as ever, are tough to read on the topic of mass revolt.
There seems to be a segment of the population that believes Iraq holds the political high ground in the Mideast by virtue of their toppling of a despotic regime and institution of a democratic society. These folks believe others in the region want to be like them.

A variation of this view has a depressing caveat – they are embarrassed that it took an outside power, in this case the U.S., to unseat Saddam Hussein. Iraqis are deeply xenophobic and this interference does not sit well with most of them.

The more prevalent position is to use the Tunisia/Egypt events as a veiled threat to the new government of Iraq. Though there is huge potential for Iraqi economic prosperity from oil, gas, religious tourism, and other promising sectors, you can’t escape the physics that tell you potential can be a long way from kinetic. The current government is on the hook to get the ball rolling but it has to start by satisfying the basic needs of its own population.

So…democracy in Iraq is in the “show me” phase and everyone is very much aware of the possibility of Egypt’s trials becoming a blueprint for Iraq action. Unhappy folks all over Iraq have been protesting ever since the elections last March, mostly over lack of electricity. On one hand this is a good thing – the government allows citizens to assemble and recognizes their rights to criticize elected officials. On the other hand, you worry that demonstrations take on a life of their own and move beyond the intended goals of the organizers. Fixing Iraq infrastructure problems will take years, so the big question is: can it be done in a visible and measurable way that is acceptable to the population?

If not, my preference is to read about it in the papers rather than watch and listen to it outside the walls of this compound.